Right now
The most recent data we hold from NOAA arrived 6 hours ago, and this point is not in it. We record detections, not passes: an absence is not proof that nothing is there.
Nothing else has been detected within 20 km in the last 24 hours.
This alert expired on 12 June 2026 at 23:15 UTC. It is kept here as a record.
It is the 4th strongest of the 78 detections recorded within 20 km of this point since 16 March 2026. Another comparable one was recorded here earlier the same day. 8 more were recorded here in the fortnight before it.
What the source measured
NOAA reported: Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued June 12 at 6:57PM EDT until June 12 at 7:15PM EDT by NWS Wakefield VA
Urban PEI: 147,900 within a heuristic 50 km radius; not unique people.
Nearby, since 16 March 2026
- July 22, 2026 · score 67 · 5.5 km
- September 5, 2026 · score 32 · 6.3 km
- August 9, 2026 · score 43 · 7.6 km
How we know
One source: NOAA. Not yet confirmed by a second, independent source.
Our own score for this event is 43 out of 100.
This is our versioned heuristic index, not source severity or a calibrated probability. Urban PEI does not count unique people.
Computed under scoring rules v1. Rows carrying other versions were judged by different rules and are not directly comparable.
Event Data
| Type | Severe Weather |
| Severity | Medium |
| Calamity Score (ours) | 43 / 100 |
| Legacy data-support index | 0.80/1 |
| Coordinates | 37.7475, -78.7758 |
| Nearest City | Waynesboro (37 km) |
| Urban exposure index (PEI) | 147.9K within 50 km |
| Impact Tier | significant |
| Timestamp | 2026-06-12T22:57:00.000Z |
| Source | https://api.weather.gov/alerts/merged_Severe Thunderstorm Warning_noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.a21f47f128aea0e2f62ec174bed62c5e |
Physical priority index · v1. Heuristic priority, not calibrated probability, predictive accuracy or damage. The legacy data-support index combines assigned source support and field availability. Urban PEI is distance-weighted and does not count unique people; zero does not establish that nobody is present. Model cards.
Source and revision timeline
Source: noaa. Occurrence: 2026-06-12T22:57:00.000Z.
First archived: 2026-06-12T22:59:11.600Z. Material modification: not recorded.
Retained revisions are prospective; earlier versions may be unavailable. No revision entry does not prove that a record never changed.
Score Breakdown
Technical Details
| Event | Severe Thunderstorm Warning |
| Urgency | Immediate |
| Certainty | Observed |
| AreaDesc | Fluvanna, VA; Louisa, VA; Essex, VA; Lancaster, VA; Northumberland, VA; Richmond, VA; Arlington, VA; Fairfax, VA; Loudoun, VA; Prince William, VA; City of Fairfax, VA; City of Falls Church, VA; City of Manassas Park, VA and 10 more areas |
| Headline | Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued June 12 at 6:57PM EDT until June 12 at 7:15PM EDT by NWS Wakefield VA |
| Expires | 2026-06-12T19:15:00-04:00 |
| SenderName | NWS Wakefield VA |
| HasExactCoords | true |
| MergedCount | 13 |
| MergedIds | ["noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.a21f47f128aea0e2f62ec174bed62c5ec44d57fe.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.c332c5732a8d65562eed48fb26a77a671c6cad47.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.fb755efe4d0142b48c72f41e8bea1c61bb30103e.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.15adf60fde49c8e993f796c35408d474d2c4de32.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.e82e2a58232f90978271026ea931870c002730f5.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.3950ad4b8f29e76ee6a10c52318a541d52bcb0b5.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.44f851804b834832bce31c867d101cdb61e52c7c.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.7fc1ce3c6f52a80cf1fe32fe2732510fab6b7ea5.002.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.eba1cd3a9e31624db76c9871f1c93a3a951778c0.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.072c01e98fca16a18927c1475f148894e137e89f.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.a126635b5e09b268f539c5f20a0f49776d756c8e.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.955e245a35f60c250197634db52c807e7412d13d.002.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.572041fbf9eae1ced1e9787b895835c5acc2e686.001.1"] |
Safety Information
Always follow official guidance from your local emergency management agency. This platform provides scientific monitoring data and is not a substitute for official warnings. If you are in immediate danger, contact your local emergency number.
Series begins 8 March 2026. Comparisons refer to that period only. Collection gap: 14-26 August 2026.
This data is aggregated algorithmically from scientific sources. Not a replacement for official emergency warnings.
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